Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-11 21:16

55%
Win Probability
+4.3
Projected Margin
CI: [-15.7 to +24.3]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
4
Bust Risk
Bucky Irving (50%), Omarion Hampton (52%), Juwan Johnson (60%), Jameson Williams (47%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):
RB: 🔒 Bucky Irving 5.1 pts
Pending Decisions:
QB: Start Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett Higher projection (16.0 vs 15.0). Love has home-field advantage at Lambeau despite cold weather. Brissett faces #1 vs QB defense (HOU).
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Rashee Rice WR1 overall ECR. Massive blowout potential (SEA -13.5). IND defense ranks 25th vs WR. Projection: 22.0 pts.
WR2: Start Rashee Rice over Jameson Williams Higher projection (18.0 vs 17.0). Rice has 43% historical boom probability. Elite WR8 ECR despite tough LAC matchup.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Higher projection (8.0 vs 7.0). CAR defense ranks 23rd vs TE (favorable). Henry faces BUF #1 vs TE in snow.
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Highest game total of week (55.5). DET/LAR shootout script favors Williams. McMillan (13.0) is the clear backup FLEX option.
K: Start Jason Myers over N/A Only rostered kicker. K2 ECR, SEA -13.5 favorite = many scoring opportunities. XGB: 53% boom probability.
D/ST: Start Bears D/ST over Rams D/ST DST5 vs DST18. CHI plays CLE in extreme cold (25°F, 17mph wind). Lowest game total (38.5). Rams face explosive DET offense.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jordan Love DEN14.816.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving ATL15.24.6LOCKEDMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton KC11.711.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba IND20.622.0BOOMMEDIUM
WR Rashee Rice LAC17.218.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson CAR9.78.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams LAR13.917.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers IND8.511.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Bears D/ST CLE6.79.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 43% boom / 21% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust
ADD Garrett Wilson (WR) 36% boom / 35% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a crucial matchup against Auto DraftKings with playoff positioning on the line. Bucky Irving's Thursday night performance (4.6 pts) was disappointing and he suffered a foot sprain, but the remaining roster projects strong at 116.6 total points. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads as the WR1 overall (22.0 pts projected) in a blowout scenario against Indianapolis. The Bears D/ST gets a premium matchup in Cleveland's extreme cold (25°F), while Jameson Williams benefits from the week's highest game total (55.5) in the DET/LAR shootout. The key decision is starting Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett despite Lambeau's frigid conditions, as Love's 16.0 projection edges Brissett's 15.0 against Houston's league-best QB defense.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 15)

5.1 - 8.5 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Bucky Irving RB RB ✓ 5.1 15.2 4.6 +0.5

Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 13.9 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 11.7 11.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.6 22.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.2 18.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 8.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 13.9 17.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 11.0
Bears D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.7 9.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 10.8 9.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 10.3 7.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 14.8 16.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 4.2 5.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.2 13.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 10.1 8.0
5.1 Actual
116.6 LLM Total
107.3 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Completed (2)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Emeka Egbuka WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 8.5 12.0 --- -3.5
Sean Tucker (bench) RB BE ✓ 6.7 2.9 --- +3.8

Opponent Games Pending (14)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Caleb Williams QB QB 16.1 ---
Jonathan Taylor RB RB 17.6 ---
Kenneth Gainwell RB RB 12.6 ---
A.J. Brown WR WR 16.8 ---
Justin Jefferson WR WR 15.7 ---
Dalton Schultz TE TE 8.9 ---
Jake Elliott K K 8.0 ---
Saints D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.9 ---
C.J. Stroud (bench) QB BE 17.2 ---
Courtland Sutton (bench) WR BE 13.1 ---
David Njoku (bench) TE BE 4.1 ---
Jakobi Meyers (bench) WR BE 11.7 ---
Khalil Shakir (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) WR BE 14.7 ---
8.5 Opp Actual
95.0 Opp LLM Total
110.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +21.6 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 4.6 (LOCKED)

Context: O/U: 43.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 55.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 47% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 39.5ˢ | ECR: 35ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.38.011.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 24%

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18%

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40%

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs DET

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 61%

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • Averaging 8.0 pts vs 6.4 projected (+24%)
  • Trending up: 9.0 avg (last 3) vs 6.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.73)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61%

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.38.011.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Justin Jefferson WR MIN 15.7 13.3 0% 0% 0% LOW
A.J. Brown WR PHI 16.8 15.7 0% 0% 0% LOW
Jonathan Taylor RB IND 17.6 20.8 0% 0% 0% LOW
Kenneth Gainwell RB PIT 12.6 10.1 0% 0% 0% LOW
Emeka Egbuka WR TB 12.0 12.0 0% 0% 0% LOW
Caleb Williams QB CHI 16.1 17.0 0% 0% 0% LOW
Dalton Schultz TE HOU 8.9 9.0 0% 0% 0% LOW
Jake Elliott K PHI 8.0 7.9 0% 0% 0% LOW
Saints D/ST D/ST NO 5.9 8.3 0% 0% 0% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%43%
Bust%21%
EV7.4
BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%42%
Bust%20%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)
ADD Garrett Wilson WR,
Boom%36%
Bust%35%
EV14.8
BUST: 38% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (10-22) BOOM: 23% (17-32)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%34%
Bust%14%
EV8.3
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Isiah Pacheco RB,
Boom%32%
Bust%16%
EV8.0
BUST: 68% (1-9) MODERATE: 29% (7-19) BOOM: 3% (17-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.4 43% 21% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 42% 20% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 36% 35% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.3 34% 14% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 32% 16% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.8 29% 26% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.6 27% 54% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 11.5 21% 31% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.3 20% 22% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10.5 20% 9% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 16.8 20% 35% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 14.6 19% 56% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 9.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 18% 47% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 16% 58% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 20% 35%
Aaron Rodgers 14.6 BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% 19% 56%
Justin Fields 16.4 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 15% 43%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% 42% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 32% 16%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% 29% 26%
Chuba Hubbard 11.5 BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% 21% 31%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.9 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 10% 68%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% 36% 35%
Matthew Golden 9.0 BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% 18% 48%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 16% 58%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 12% 66%
Keenan Allen 11.9 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 11% 66%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.3 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 34% 14%
Harold Fannin Jr. 10.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% 20% 9%
Colston Loveland 9.8 BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% 10% 60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.6 27% 54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.3 20% 22%
Evan McPherson 9.5 14% 68%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.4 43% 21%
Patriots D/ST 8.8 18% 47%
Dolphins D/ST 8.7 14% 63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-11 21:15

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+4.3
Expected Margin
116.6
My Team (LLM Proj)
95.0
Opponent (Proj)
33.0
Margin Std Dev
122.9
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -34.4 pts | Median: +8.9 pts | Ceiling: +50.2 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 15.0 4.1-27.5 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 5.1 5.1-24.1 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 11.0 3.6-24.2 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 22.0 6.3-30.5 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 18.0 6.1-27.7 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.0 3.9-24.9 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 8.0 2.9-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% Juwan Johnson
Bears D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 0.5-16.0 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 38% Bears D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.0 5.1-17.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 16.0 6.5-27.8 ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 2.4-18.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 9.0 0.6-18.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 13.0 5.4-26.0 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 0.0 3.7-21.6 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 7.0 3.5-21.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% Hunter Henry
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 5.0 1.1-18.4 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Caleb Williams QB HIGH 17.0 6.1-30.3 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Caleb Williams
Jonathan Taylor RB HIGH 20.7 8.5-37.7 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Jonathan Taylor
Kenneth Gainwell RB HIGH 10.1 1.4-23.7 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 38% Kenneth Gainwell
Justin Jefferson WR HIGH 13.4 5.4-22.5 ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown WR HIGH 15.7 2.7-28.9 ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% A.J. Brown
Emeka Egbuka WR HIGH 12.1 3.5-24.2 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 22% Emeka Egbuka
Dalton Schultz TE HIGH 9.0 2.7-17.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% Dalton Schultz
Saints D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.2 0.3-17.3 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 36% Saints D/ST
Jake Elliott K HIGH 8.0 2.2-15.0 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 32% Jake Elliott

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
C.J. Stroud QB HIGH 14.3 5.3-25.2 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 9% C.J. Stroud
Sean Tucker RB HIGH 10.0 1.3-27.3 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 36% Sean Tucker
Wan'Dale Robinson WR HIGH 12.5 4.7-24.1 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 12% Wan'Dale Robinson
Courtland Sutton WR HIGH 13.0 3.2-22.4 ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 16% Courtland Sutton
Jakobi Meyers WR HIGH 12.5 5.2-21.5 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 9% Jakobi Meyers
Khalil Shakir WR HIGH 10.8 1.8-20.3 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 25% Khalil Shakir
David Njoku TE HIGH 9.2 3.5-18.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 31% David Njoku

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.3 65% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.7 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.5 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.4 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 23.0 47% @ 11.9 26% @ 4.8 13.0
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 15.0 42% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.7 30% @ 5.3 14.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 73% @ 21.3 2% @ 14.7 25% @ 5.8 17.3
Bears D/ST D/ST 19% @ 15.3 47% @ 8.1 34% @ 2.9 7.7

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.511.0MODERATE53.3%31.5%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR0.00.0OUT46.6%35.5%17.9%
Jordan LoveQB14.816.0MODERATE27.0%51.6%21.4%
Rashee RiceWR17.218.0MODERATE24.8%41.6%33.6%
Bears D/STD/ST6.79.0MODERATE24.3%43.7%32.0%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.213.0MODERATE18.0%57.5%24.4%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.78.0MODERATE15.2%24.7%60.1%
Luther Burden IIIWR8.18.0MODERATE14.4%41.9%43.7%
Devin SingletaryRB10.89.0MODERATE13.8%31.4%54.8%
Tyjae SpearsRB10.18.0MODERATE13.7%45.8%40.4%
Jacoby BrissettQB13.915.0MODERATE13.6%49.0%37.4%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.917.0MODERATE13.0%39.9%47.1%
Rams D/STD/ST4.25.0BUST13.0%26.2%60.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.622.0BOOM12.1%64.4%23.4%
Bucky IrvingRB15.24.6LOCKED10.9%38.8%50.3%
Omarion HamptonRB11.711.0MODERATE10.7%36.7%52.5%
Hunter HenryTE10.37.0BUST8.4%30.5%61.1%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-4 1744.9 1548.1 +196.8 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 9-5 1642.6 1645.4 -2.7 8.8 vs 0.0 W1 99.9%
3 Valued Customers ← 8-6 1691.7 1454.1 +237.6 5.1 vs 8.5 W4 74.8%
4 Wookie of the Year 8-6 1601.3 1616.8 -15.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 58.7%
5 Meat Pistols 8-6 1429.7 1517.1 -87.5 0.0 vs 45.2 L1 32.5%
6 Ryan's Rowdy Team 7-7 1644.8 1620.4 +24.4 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 24.7%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-7 1610.5 1546.2 +64.3 0.0 vs 8.8 L1 9.4%
8 Moms rules 6-8 1536.5 1662.1 -125.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
9 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-8 1478.5 1534.4 -55.9 0.0 vs 3.2 L4 0.0%
10 Smooth Roosters 6-8 1516.7 1561.6 -44.9 45.2 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 The Warsaw Pact 5-9 1498.3 1646.5 -148.2 3.2 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-10 1593.4 1636.3 -42.9 8.5 vs 5.1 L3 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
4th and pinches 8.8 @ 0.0 Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers 5.1 @ 8.5 Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 45.2 Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 3.2 The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

10.1
Our Team MAE
24 players
11.7
Opponent MAE
9 players
0.0
Free Agent MAE
3 players
36
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 9.6
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.6 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Opponent RB Jonathan Taylor 17.6 - 0.0 -17.6
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Opponent WR A.J. Brown 16.8 - 0.0 -16.8
Opponent QB Caleb Williams 16.1 - 0.0 -16.1
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Opponent WR Justin Jefferson 15.7 - 0.0 -15.7
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Justin Jefferson 15.7 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team QB Caleb Williams 16.1 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team RB Jonathan Taylor 16.7 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Opponent RB Kenneth Gainwell 12.6 - 0.0 -12.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team WR A.J. Brown 16.8 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.8 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team TE Dalton Schultz 8.9 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 6.7 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent TE Dalton Schultz 8.9 - 0.0 -8.9
Opponent K Jake Elliott 8.0 - 0.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.3 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team K Jake Elliott 8.0 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Opponent D/ST Saints D/ST 5.9 - 0.0 -5.9
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Opponent WR Emeka Egbuka 12.0 - 8.5 -3.5
Our Team RB Sean Tucker 2.9 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 4.6 5.1 +0.5
Our Team WR Emeka Egbuka 12.0 9.0 8.5 -0.5
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent RB Chuba Hubbard 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent TE Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Steelers D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 8.0 14.7 +6.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 14.8 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
49%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.0 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 4.6 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
65%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.1 pts
Median (50th) 14.1 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.6 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 30.6 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.4 pts
90th percentile 25.6 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
47% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.0 pts
Median (50th) 17.1 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 10.1 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 11.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.7 pts
90th percentile 24.4 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 8.5 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.9 pts
90th percentile 17.0 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
53% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 16.9 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 14.5 pts
90th percentile 25.0 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
73%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 18.2 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
73% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 10.3 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 3.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.4 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 10.8 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.8 pts
90th percentile 18.8 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Luther Burden III (WR)
09182736Fantasy PointsESPNLLMSeason
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
12%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 17.4 pts
MC (Historical)
12% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Bears D/ST (D/ST)
Bears D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 6.7 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 6.8 pts
90th percentile 16.0 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Justin Jefferson (WR)
Justin Jefferson distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.7 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
6%
10th percentile 5.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.9 pts
90th percentile 22.6 pts
A.J. Brown (WR)
A.J. Brown distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
19%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
37%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 14.1 pts
90th percentile 29.0 pts
Jonathan Taylor (RB)
Jonathan Taylor distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 17.6 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 8.5 pts
Median (50th) 17.6 pts
90th percentile 37.9 pts
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)
Kenneth Gainwell distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.6 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 1.5 pts
Median (50th) 7.0 pts
90th percentile 23.8 pts
Emeka Egbuka (WR)
Emeka Egbuka distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.0 pts
BUST
41%
MODERATE
31%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 3.4 pts
Median (50th) 9.7 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
Caleb Williams (QB)
Caleb Williams distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.1 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 6.0 pts
Median (50th) 15.7 pts
90th percentile 30.0 pts
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Dalton Schultz distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 17.2 pts
Jake Elliott (K)
Jake Elliott distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 7.2 pts
90th percentile 14.8 pts
Saints D/ST (D/ST)
Saints D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 5.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 0.3 pts
Median (50th) 7.4 pts
90th percentile 17.4 pts