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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jordan Love | DEN | 14.8 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ATL | 15.2 | 4.6 | LOCKED | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | KC | 11.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LAC | 17.2 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | CAR | 9.7 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | LAR | 13.9 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | IND | 8.5 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Bears D/ST | CLE | 6.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 presents a crucial matchup against Auto DraftKings with playoff positioning on the line. Bucky Irving's Thursday night performance (4.6 pts) was disappointing and he suffered a foot sprain, but the remaining roster projects strong at 116.6 total points. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads as the WR1 overall (22.0 pts projected) in a blowout scenario against Indianapolis. The Bears D/ST gets a premium matchup in Cleveland's extreme cold (25°F), while Jameson Williams benefits from the week's highest game total (55.5) in the DET/LAR shootout. The key decision is starting Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett despite Lambeau's frigid conditions, as Love's 16.0 projection edges Brissett's 15.0 against Houston's league-best QB defense.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 5.1 | 15.2 | 4.6 | +0.5 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 13.9 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 11.7 | 11.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.6 | 22.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.2 | 18.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 8.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.9 | 17.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.7 | 9.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.3 | 7.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | 16.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 10.1 | 8.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 8.5 | 12.0 | --- | -3.5 |
| Sean Tucker (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 6.7 | 2.9 | --- | +3.8 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB | 16.1 | --- |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB | 17.6 | --- |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB | 12.6 | --- |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR | 16.8 | --- |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR | 15.7 | --- |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE | 8.9 | --- |
| Jake Elliott | K | K | 8.0 | --- |
| Saints D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.9 | --- |
| C.J. Stroud (bench) | QB | BE | 17.2 | --- |
| Courtland Sutton (bench) | WR | BE | 13.1 | --- |
| David Njoku (bench) | TE | BE | 4.1 | --- |
| Jakobi Meyers (bench) | WR | BE | 11.7 | --- |
| Khalil Shakir (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) | WR | BE | 14.7 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 4.6 (LOCKED)
Context: O/U: 43.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 55.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 47% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
Context: O/U: 39.5ˢ | ECR: 35ˢ
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 24%
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 47% | Bust 18%
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40%
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 15.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 61%
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 7.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61%
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%
Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE, 31% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM, 44% BUST. CLE #8 vs WR (tough). Low game total (39.5). CHI offense struggling. WR35 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 15.7 | 13.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 16.8 | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 17.6 | 20.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PIT | 12.6 | 10.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 12.0 | 12.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 16.1 | 17.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 8.9 | 9.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| Jake Elliott | K | PHI | 8.0 | 7.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW | |
| Saints D/ST | D/ST | NO | 5.9 | 8.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW |
Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 36% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.3 | 34% | 14% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 32% | 16% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 29% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.5 | 21% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 20% | 9% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.8 | 20% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 19% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 9.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 16% | 58% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 20% | 35% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 19% | 56% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 43% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 42% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 32% | 16% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 29% | 26% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.5 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 21% | 31% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 10% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 36% | 35% | |
| Matthew Golden | 9.0 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% | 18% | 48% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 16% | 58% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 12% | 66% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.9 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 11% | 66% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.3 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 34% | 14% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 20% | 9% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.8 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 14% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.7 | 14% | 63% |
Win Probability
Floor: -34.4 pts | Median: +8.9 pts | Ceiling: +50.2 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.1-27.5 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 5.1 | 5.1-24.1 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.6-24.2 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.3-30.5 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 18.0 | 6.1-27.7 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.0 | 3.9-24.9 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.9-16.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.5-16.0 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 38% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 11.0 | 5.1-17.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 16.0 | 6.5-27.8 | ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.4-18.8 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.6-18.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 5.4-26.0 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.7-21.6 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 7.0 | 3.5-21.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 5.0 | 1.1-18.4 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | HIGH | 17.0 | 6.1-30.3 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | HIGH | 20.7 | 8.5-37.7 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.4-23.7 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 38% | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | HIGH | 13.4 | 5.4-22.5 | ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | HIGH | 15.7 | 2.7-28.9 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | HIGH | 12.1 | 3.5-24.2 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.7-17.2 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Saints D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.2 | 0.3-17.3 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 36% | |
| Jake Elliott | K | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.2-15.0 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HIGH | 14.3 | 5.3-25.2 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 1.3-27.3 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 36% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 4.7-24.1 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 3.2-22.4 | ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.2-21.5 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 1.8-20.3 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 25% | |
| David Njoku | TE | HIGH | 9.2 | 3.5-18.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.7 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.5 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.4 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 11.9 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.3 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 73% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 25% @ 5.8 | 17.3 |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 19% @ 15.3 | 47% @ 8.1 | 34% @ 2.9 | 7.7 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.5 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 53.3% | 31.5% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | OUT | 46.6% | 35.5% | 17.9% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 14.8 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 27.0% | 51.6% | 21.4% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.2 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 24.8% | 41.6% | 33.6% |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 6.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 24.3% | 43.7% | 32.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 18.0% | 57.5% | 24.4% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 15.2% | 24.7% | 60.1% |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 8.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 14.4% | 41.9% | 43.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 10.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 13.8% | 31.4% | 54.8% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 13.7% | 45.8% | 40.4% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 13.9 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 13.6% | 49.0% | 37.4% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 13.0% | 39.9% | 47.1% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | BUST | 13.0% | 26.2% | 60.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.6 | 22.0 | BOOM | 12.1% | 64.4% | 23.4% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 4.6 | LOCKED | 10.9% | 38.8% | 50.3% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 10.7% | 36.7% | 52.5% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.3 | 7.0 | BUST | 8.4% | 30.5% | 61.1% |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 9-5 | 1642.6 | 1645.4 | -2.7 | 8.8 vs 0.0 | W1 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 8-6 | 1691.7 | 1454.1 | +237.6 | 5.1 vs 8.5 | W4 | 74.8% |
| 4 | Wookie of the Year | 8-6 | 1601.3 | 1616.8 | -15.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 58.7% |
| 5 | Meat Pistols | 8-6 | 1429.7 | 1517.1 | -87.5 | 0.0 vs 45.2 | L1 | 32.5% |
| 6 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-7 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 24.7% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-7 | 1610.5 | 1546.2 | +64.3 | 0.0 vs 8.8 | L1 | 9.4% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-8 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-8 | 1478.5 | 1534.4 | -55.9 | 0.0 vs 3.2 | L4 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 6-8 | 1516.7 | 1561.6 | -44.9 | 45.2 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | The Warsaw Pact | 5-9 | 1498.3 | 1646.5 | -148.2 | 3.2 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-10 | 1593.4 | 1636.3 | -42.9 | 8.5 vs 5.1 | L3 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| 4th and pinches | 8.8 | @ | 0.0 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| Valued Customers | 5.1 | @ | 8.5 | Auto DraftKings |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 45.2 | Smooth Roosters |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 3.2 | The Warsaw Pact |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.6 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 17.6 | - | 0.0 | -17.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Opponent | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | - | 0.0 | -16.8 |
| Opponent | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | - | 0.0 | -16.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | - | 0.0 | -15.7 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 16.7 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Kenneth Gainwell | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Bears D/ST | 6.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | - | 0.0 | -8.9 |
| Opponent | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | - | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Saints D/ST | 5.9 | - | 0.0 | -5.9 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.0 | - | 8.5 | -3.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Sean Tucker | 2.9 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | +0.5 |
| Our Team | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | TE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Steelers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.